← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 77% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.54 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 8% | 7% | 12.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −2 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SSC Napoli −2 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 58% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 42% | 3.25 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · US Lecce |
| 37' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 48' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 57' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · US Lecce |
| 66' | 🟨 | Andrea Rispoli · US Lecce |
| 73' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mauro Vigorito · US Lecce |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 82' | ⚽ | Marco Mancosu · US Lecce |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 10 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| 🟨 |
| Diego Demme · SSC Napoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 70.00 | 891.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1813.17 | 1578.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.35 | -3.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.76 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 29.25 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |