← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 45% | 56% | 2.21 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 27% | 18% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.03 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Hellas Verona FC |
| 20' | ⚽ | Mattia Bani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | 🟥 | Mattia Bani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Mbaye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.32 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1657.78 | 1561.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.71 | 24.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |