← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jan 12, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 46% | 35% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
| Genoa CFC win | 25% | 34% | 3.93 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Amir Rrahmani · Hellas Verona FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Hellas Verona FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Valerio Verre · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Valerio Verre · Hellas Verona FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mattia Zaccagni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Genoa CFC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 77' |
| 🟨 |
| Francesco Cassata · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andrea Favilli · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.60 |
| coach days | 225.00 | 42.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1499.06 | 1480.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.52 | -6.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |