← Serie A 2019-20 · Mon, Jan 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Pasqua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 74% | 78% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.15 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 10% | 8% | 10.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −1.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 37% | 3.12 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 11' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 29' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 43' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 71' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1314.00 | 1131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.15 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1850.97 | 1650.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.36 | 17.19 |
| eye test v1 | 2.02 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 15.10 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 29.06 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |