← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jan 5, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Manganiello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 56% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.09 | value: +14% |
| Brescia win | 21% | 15% | 4.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| SS Lazio +0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Brescia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Andrea Cistana · Brescia |
| 39' | 🟥 | Andrea Cistana · Brescia |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · Brescia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Brescia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dimitri Bisoli · Brescia |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jony · SS Lazio |
| 72' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| 🟨 |
| Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jhon Chancellor · Brescia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 35.00 | 1374.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1551.75 | 1806.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.05 | 22.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 19.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.01 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.96 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |