← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 44% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 51% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 49% | 2.52 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Tachtsidis · US Lecce |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Mbaye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Khouma Babacar · US Lecce |
| 56' | ⚽ | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · US Lecce |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marco Calderoni · US Lecce |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 16 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Via del Mare |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 842.00 | 355.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 4.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1592.23 | 1656.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.32 | 7.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.32 | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |