← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 52% | 57% | 1.87 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 22% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AC Milan −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mateo Musacchio · AC Milan |
| 44' | 🟨 | Suso · AC Milan |
| 46' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Atalanta BC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 72' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1299.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1838.79 | 1755.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.92 | 12.09 |
| eye test v1 | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 24.90 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |