← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 35% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 33% | 42% | 2.99 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Torino FC +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Hellas Verona FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Koray Günter · Hellas Verona FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Bremer · Torino FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Hellas Verona FC |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Giampaolo Pazzini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 76' | ⚽ | Valerio Verre · Hellas Verona FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Hellas Verona FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 197.00 | 713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1529.18 | 1746.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.77 | 6.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 28.26 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |