← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brescia win | 50% | 33% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 45% | 3.80 | value: +70% ⚠ |
| US Lecce win | 25% | 22% | 3.96 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Brescia −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 47% | 2.42 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Zan Majer · US Lecce |
| 15' | 🟨 | Evgen Shakhov · US Lecce |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jhon Chancellor · Brescia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jhon Chancellor · Brescia |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Brescia |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ernesto Torregrossa · Brescia |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ernesto Torregrossa · Brescia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrea Tabanelli · US Lecce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · US Lecce |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nikolas Špalek · Brescia |
| 58' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 26 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| 🟨 |
| Marco Calderoni · US Lecce |
| 61' | ⚽ | Nikolas Špalek · Brescia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 13.00 | 834.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1543.07 | 1610.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.90 | 4.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 24.70 | 28.58 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |