← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 72% | 79% | 1.34 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 11% | 7% | 9.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Atalanta BC −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 51% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 49% | 2.63 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Samuel Di Carmine · Hellas Verona FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Hellas Verona FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Salvatore Bocchetti · Hellas Verona FC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Atalanta BC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Samuel Di Carmine · Hellas Verona FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mattia Zaccagni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 85' | 🟥 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Berat Djimsiti · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1284.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1850.85 | 1531.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.13 | 29.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.11 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |