← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Rocchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 39% | 46% | 2.50 | value: +15% |
| Atalanta BC win | 33% | 27% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Juventus FC +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 10' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Pierluigi Gollini · Atalanta BC |
| 82' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1270.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1762.39 | 1900.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.63 | 4.28 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 1.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.96 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| league points | 22.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 27.19 |
| state index | 0.58 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |