← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 48% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 25% | 28% | 3.88 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |