← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 79% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 7.31 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 7% | 6% | 14.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Genoa CFC −1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 56% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 44% | 3.05 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Genoa CFC |
| 51' | 🟥 | Francesco Cassata · Genoa CFC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 57' | 🟥 | Federico Marchetti · Genoa CFC |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 24 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 87' | 🟥 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 151.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.87 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1891.51 | 1494.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.24 | -15.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 4.29 | 4.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.06 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.44 | — |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |