← Serie A 2019-20 · Tue, Oct 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 70% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +5% |
| Brescia win | 11% | 15% | 9.00 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia +1.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.41 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 26' | 🟨 | Antonio Candreva · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andrea Cistana · Brescia |
| 44' | 🟨 | Roberto Gagliardini · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aleš Matějů · Brescia |
| 62' | 🟨 | Milan Škriniar · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 63' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Milan Škriniar · Brescia |
| 79' | 🟨 | Emanuele Ndoj · Brescia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Brescia |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 423.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1533.42 | 1766.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.64 | 4.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.05 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.20 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |