← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 48% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.66 | fair |
| Brescia win | 25% | 22% | 3.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Genoa CFC −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Dimitri Bisoli · Brescia |
| 22' | 🟨 | Sandro Tonali · Brescia |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sandro Tonali · Brescia |
| 42' | 🟨 | Peter Ankersen · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paolo Ghiglione · Genoa CFC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kevin Agudelo · Genoa CFC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kevin Agudelo · Genoa CFC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Brescia |
| 75' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 24 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| 🟨 |
| Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ionuț Radu · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessandro Matri · Brescia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 25.00 | 420.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1479.19 | 1548.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.83 | -6.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |