← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 28, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Calvarese
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 18% | 18% | 5.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano +0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Sampdoria +0.75 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 45% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 55% | 2.00 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |