← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Rocchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 47% | 49% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
| Brescia win | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Brescia +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 45% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 55% | 2.20 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Alfredo Donnarumma · Brescia |
| 12' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 19' | ⚽ | Alfredo Donnarumma · Brescia |
| 21' | 🟨 | Daniele Dessena · Brescia |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mattia Bani · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Andrea Cistana · Brescia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefano Denswil · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Daniele Dessena · Brescia |
| 48' | 🟥 | Daniele Dessena · Brescia |
| 56' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 60' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brescia | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Mario Rigamonti |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Stefano Sabelli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Skov Olsen · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 379.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1555.43 | 1567.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.61 | 40.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.51 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 70.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 14.88 | 15.76 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |