← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 41% | 47% | 2.36 | value: +11% |
| SS Lazio win | 31% | 30% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 80' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Torino FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Luan Capanni · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days |
| 510.00 |
| 1150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1682.01 | 1652.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.23 | -18.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 60.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |