← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 60% | 55% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.30 | value: +15% |
| Spal win | 18% | 19% | 5.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 23' | ⚽ | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 27' | 🟨 | Ignazio Abate · AC Milan |
| 28' | ⚽ | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kevin Bonifazi · Spal |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 65' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days |
| 1637.00 |
| 571.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1553.79 | 1707.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.61 | 0.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 42.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.28 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |