← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 83% | 77% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 8.59 | value: +10% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 6% | 10% | 16.35 | value: +67% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 38' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 86' | ⚽ | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 86.00 |
| 906.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1754.21 | 1517.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.64 | -1.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.66 |
| league points | 63.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.95 | — |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |