← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 41% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 36% | 39% | 2.73 | value: +6% |
| Genoa CFC win | 23% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Gerson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Genoa CFC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days |
| 55.00 |
| 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1574.71 | 1508.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.32 | -4.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.39 | — |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -1.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |