← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 76% | 79% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.25 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 8% | 7% | 11.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |