← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Di Martino, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 47% | 43% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Chievo win | 26% | 31% | 3.71 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Luca Valzania · Frosinone Calcio |
| 36' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 52' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| coach days | 175.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1456.84 | 1395.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.11 | 5.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| league points | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |