← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aleandro Di Paolo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 43% | 50% | 2.28 | value: +13% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 31% | 23% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Faouzi Ghoulam · SSC Napoli |
| 77' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 88' | ⚽ | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days |
| 144.00 |
| 389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1546.26 | 1812.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.52 | 11.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| league points | 41.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.86 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |