← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 45% | 2.46 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.96 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 27% | 23% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 50' | ⚽ | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 63' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 1144.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1748.93 | 1639.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.93 | 45.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| league points | 58.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 29.63 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |