← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 44% | 48% | 2.21 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.04 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 24% | 26% | 4.08 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 80' | ⚽ (og) | Gerson · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 899.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| -1.60 |
| 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1506.69 | 1585.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.57 | -40.82 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.39 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |