β Serie A 2018-19 Β· Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 82% | 87% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.13 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 6% | 4% | 16.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | π¨ | Ignazio Abate Β· AC Milan |
| 57' | β½ | Krzysztof PiΔ tek Β· AC Milan |
| 66' | β½ | Suso Β· AC Milan |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days |
| 564.00 |
| 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1702.67 | 1461.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.94 | -33.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | β |
| league points | 62.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.41 | β |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |