← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 42% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Empoli win | 32% | 33% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Afriyie Acquah · Empoli |
| 56' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Matteo Brighi · Empoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 71' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 79.00 | 503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1532.73 | 1704.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.85 | 26.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 35.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |