← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Aureliano, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 51% | 58% | 1.91 | value: +10% |
| Chievo win | 25% | 22% | 3.95 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 40' | 🟥 | Federico Barba · Chievo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Manuel Pucciarelli · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 199.00 |
| 1052.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1391.75 | 1576.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.23 | -35.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 18.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | -1.08 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |