← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 62% | 60% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.30 | value: +4% |
| Spal win | 15% | 16% | 6.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 5' | ⚽ | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 35' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Spal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mattia Valoti · Spal |
| 67' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marko Janković · Spal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days |
| 78.00 |
| 1629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1524.06 | 1563.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.15 | 40.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.69 | — |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |