← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 58% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.38 | value: +11% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 20% | 23% | 4.99 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 41' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 86' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enrico Brignola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| coach days |
| 321.00 |
| 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1544.85 | 1758.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.91 | 27.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| league points | 42.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.04 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |