← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.39 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 15% | 15% | 6.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Ragnar Klavan · Cagliari Calcio |
| 31' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days |
| 168.00 |
| 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1510.05 | 1513.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.40 | -4.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 65.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 36.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |