← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 85% | 84% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 9.11 | value: +8% |
| Chievo win | 4% | 4% | 22.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Sergej Grubac · Chievo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 39' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 76' | 🟥 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 11 | On target | 0 |
| 17 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 12.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1831.32 | 1494.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.75 | -11.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| league points | 63.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.69 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |