← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 56% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 15% | 18% | 6.32 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Federico Dimarco · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Luigi Sepe · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 62' | 🟥 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matteo Scozzarella · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 72' | ⚽ | Lyanco · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 84' | ⚽ (og) | Francisco Sierralta · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 132.00 | 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1527.40 | 1520.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.54 | 7.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 37.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.87 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |