← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Empoli win | 32% | 28% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 30' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Sampdoria |
| 56' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Empoli |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Tonelli · Sampdoria |
| 75' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 1045.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1590.29 | 1519.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.08 | -21.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 49.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |