← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 36% | 45% | 2.69 | value: +22% |
| Juventus FC win | 36% | 24% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.49 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 74' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Juventus FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 79' | ⚽ | Alessandro Florenzi · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 72.00 | 1776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1837.27 | 2036.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.60 | -24.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 59.00 | 89.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 28.71 |
| state index | 1.25 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |