← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 45% | 58% | 2.16 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.32 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 26% | 21% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 31' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Ariaudo · Frosinone Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 44' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Sandro · Udinese Calcio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Federico Dionisi · Frosinone Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 14 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 162.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1546.58 | 1608.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.44 | -12.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 24.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.86 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |