← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 53% | 42% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.92 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 22% | 33% | 4.42 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · SS Lazio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Silvio Proto · SS Lazio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 314.00 | 1135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1521.55 | 1649.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.00 | -22.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |