← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 61% | 66% | 1.58 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.89 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 14% | 14% | 7.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 34' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Musa Barrow · Atalanta BC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Timothy Castagne · Atalanta BC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days |
| 1074.00 |
| 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1747.74 | 1513.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.49 | -0.32 |
| eye test v1 | 1.52 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| league points | 62.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.93 | — |
| state index | 1.25 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -1.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |