← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.42 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 19% | 21% | 5.12 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Suso · AC Milan |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 65' | 🟨 | Arturo Calabresi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 72' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 74' | 🟥 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 551.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1781.06 | 1631.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.27 | 42.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 56.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.27 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |