← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 39% | 40% | 2.53 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Marcello Gazzola · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 4' | 🟨 | Omar Colley · Sampdoria |
| 23' | 🟨 | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Federico Dimarco · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 38' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 59' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 71' | ⚽ | Alessandro Bastoni · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Édgar Barreto · Sampdoria |
| 88' | 🟨 | Omar Colley · Sampdoria |
| 88' | 🟥 | Omar Colley · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| coach days |
| 885.00 |
| 1038.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1520.59 | 1590.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.46 | -37.84 |
| eye test v1 | -1.34 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 37.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |