← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 79% | 81% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.58 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 8% | 6% | 11.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | 🟨 | Amin Younes · SSC Napoli |
| 63' | ⚽ | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alberto Cerri · Cagliari Calcio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 369.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1792.31 | 1524.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.83 | 12.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 70.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.72 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.34 | — |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |