← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Atalanta BC win | 33% | 30% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 22' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 36' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Timothy Castagne · Atalanta BC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Wallace · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · Atalanta BC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 1129.00 | 1068.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1663.81 | 1733.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.16 | 20.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 1.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 55.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 11.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.45 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |