← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 42% | 53% | 2.32 | value: +23% |
| Genoa CFC win | 29% | 23% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 82' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 84' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Esteban Rolón · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 155.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1508.52 | 1742.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.82 | 16.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.70 | 1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.90 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |