← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 39% | 37% | 2.51 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 35% | 39% | 2.78 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Edimilson Fernandes · ACF Fiorentina |
| 24' | 🟨 | Marko Pajač · Empoli |
| 54' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Empoli |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · Empoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jordan Veretout · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 65.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1508.06 | 1605.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.56 | -32.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |