← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 58% | 59% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 17% | 18% | 5.74 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Sandro · Udinese Calcio |
| 15' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 40' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1603.45 | 1835.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.46 | 19.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| league points | 33.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 2.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.75 | 28.61 |
| state index | -0.09 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |