← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Riccardo Ros, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 43% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.17 | fair |
| Chievo win | 26% | 31% | 3.76 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Felipe · Spal |
| 18' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 47' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Felipe · Spal |
| 57' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Chievo |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 184.00 |
| 1615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1408.68 | 1554.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.32 | 36.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.98 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |