← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 61% | 58% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.04 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 15% | 22% | 6.49 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bremer · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1767.00 | 487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1936.34 | 1693.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.92 | 19.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| league points | 88.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.59 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.09 | — |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |