← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francesco Fourneau, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 17% | 17% | 5.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Vincent Laurini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 29' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 37' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Federico Peluso · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nicky Medja Beloko · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days |
| 28.00 |
| 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1618.98 | 1539.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.40 | 3.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |