← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 70% | 72% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 11% | 9% | 9.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 1062.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1728.15 | 1508.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.08 | 4.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.88 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 56.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 25.69 |
| state index | 1.13 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |